In a sweeping move set to reshape Nigeria’s downstream fuel sector, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has formally approved a 15 % ad valorem import duty on refined petrol (premium motor spirit) and diesel imported into the country. Issued via a presidential memo dated October 21 2025, the directive tasks the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) with implementing what the government calls a “market-responsive import tariff framework”.
Why it matters
• The tariff is aimed at protecting Nigeria’s fledgling refining industry – notably the Dangote Refinery in Lagos – by making imported fuel more expensive, thereby giving local refiners a competitive edge.
• The government estimates the cost to consumer fuel of the tax could be as much as ₦99.72 per liter at current import costs.
• Although implementation is set after a 30-day transition window (to allow for adjustments), the timing is critical: coming just ahead of the end-of-year holiday season, it sets the stage for immediate inflationary pressure.
Immediate overall impact
The tariff effectively raises the landed cost of imported refined fuel, meaning marketers are likely to pass on cost increases to motorists. With fuel being a key input into transport, goods distribution and general economic activity, the ripple effects will be felt widely: higher pump-prices, increased transport fares, rising food and commodity costs. Analysts warn of a fresh inflation spike in a country where inflation is already elevated.
Political implications for Tinubu ahead of 2027
For President Tinubu and his ruling coalition, the tariff move is double-edged. On one hand it signals reform and industrial strategy; on the other hand, it risks political backlash — especially among households feeling the squeeze and in regions where fuel price increases may be acutely felt.
Why timing and politics are tricky
• The North and other regions already face cost-of-living pressures; adding a fuel-price shock ahead of holiday season may amplify popular discontent.
• Fuel price sensitivity is high: any perceived move that places cost burdens on the average Nigerian becomes a political risk.
• For Tinubu’s re-mandate or his party’s electoral prospects in 2027, maintaining broad societal buy-in is essential; economic policies that unnerve major voting blocs can erode support.
Three scenarios for 2027 electoral fortunes
1. Best-case scenario – Reform narrative wins
If the tariffs are managed carefully; if local refining output rises, supply remains stable, and the benefits (jobs, investment, energy security) begin to show, the policy could be framed as a necessary step for national industrialization. The government might then win praise for forward-looking leadership rather than being blamed. In this scenario, Tinubu’s political support holds and may even improve.
2. Moderate/outcome scenario – Mixed signals
The tariff is implemented, but fuel price increases hit before visible gains from refining or alternative supply chain benefits arrive. Households feel pain while reforms are still future-oriented. Voter sentiment becomes cautious; support is lukewarm, mobilization declines, and in 2027 Tinubu’s coalition faces tighter margins in key regions.
3. Worst-case scenario – Backlash and erosion of support
If supply disruptions occur, fuel scarcity or price spikes emerge, and the public perceives the policy as favoring big companies or the elites (e.g., a selective benefit for the Dangote Refinery) then the political cost could be severe. Widespread protest, disenchantment, and disengagement by key voting blocs — especially in the North — could considerably weaken Tinubu’s standing in 2027.
Key take-aways
• The 15 % import duty on refined fuel is a major shift in Nigeria’s energy- and industrial-policy landscape.
• Although the tariff takes effect after a transition window, the economic and political repercussions begin now, especially with the upcoming holiday season.
• For Tinubu, the gamble is high; the policy could accelerate industrialization and energy independence, or it could trigger economic pain and political fallout just when electoral calendar stakes are rising.
Nigeria is watching closely, and so are the markets, the households and the voters. The next few weeks will show whether this move turns into reform credibility or political liability.