Emilokan – Nigeria England Tinubu’s Loan & When it is Kemi Badenoch Turn Just like his

Emilokan” is a Yoruba phrase translating to “it is my turn,” which became a significant Nigerian political slogan representing a candidate’s assertion that they are entitled to hold office after years of waiting. It was famously used to signify the transition of power and has since been adapted into music, most notably a 2024 track by Eedris Abdulkareem

To understand Kemi Badenoch’s standing in the UK, it is important to separate her popularity among the general public from her popularity within her own party. As of March 2026, she occupies a unique and precarious position in British politics.

1. How popular is she in the UK?

At Prime Minister’s Questions today, Kemi Badenoch pressed Keir Starmer on UK energy supplies and North Sea drilling. Starmer responds: “She wanted to join the war. She didn’t think through the consequences. And now she doesn’t know where she stands on the most important issue facing this country at this time.” He continues: “Let’s be clear, when Russia invaded Ukraine, energy prices doubled. The 12-day war, oil prices hit £100 a barrel. In the last four weeks because we’re on the fossil fuel rollercoaster, everybody has been held to ransom. “The only way forward is to go further and faster on renewables and the leader of the Opposition’s approach is to outsource our foreign policy and let the US decide whether we go to war, to outsource our energy policy to Russia and Iran and let them set the price of energy. I will never do that, because it’s not in the British national interest.”

Currently, Badenoch’s popularity is a “mixed bag” that reflects the deeply divided nature of UK politics.

• The Numbers: According to March 2026 polling (YouGov), her net favourability sits at -25. Approximately 27% of the public view her favourably, while 52% view her unfavourably. While these numbers seem low, they are notably better than those of the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, whose ratings have plummeted to nearly -50 following a difficult first 18 months in office.

   

• The “Badenoch Bounce”: Within the Conservative Party, she remains relatively popular. She is seen as a “conviction politician” who isn’t afraid of a fight. Many grassroots Tories love her “war on woke” and her willingness to challenge established narratives on race and empire.

• The Polarizing Factor: Outside of the Conservative base, she is often viewed as “combative” or “divisive.” Her blunt rhetorical style—which her fans call “authentic”—is often interpreted by critics as “aggressive” or “unsympathetic.”

  The “Emilokan” connection between President Bola Tinubu and Kemi Badenoch has become a major talking point in both Abuja and London this month. While Tinubu’s “turn” was solidified with his 2023 victory and his recent high-profile March 2026 state visit, the question of whether it is now “Kemi’s turn” in the UK is much more complicated.

  Here is the breakdown of the controversial loan and Kemi’s current standing.

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  1. The “Tinubu Loan”: A £746 Million Port Deal

  During his state visit to London (March 18–19, 2026), President Tinubu oversaw the signing of a £746 million ($1 billion) financing agreement to modernize the Apapa and Tin Can Island ports in Lagos.

   

  • The Goal: To fix the notorious congestion and decaying infrastructure at Nigeria’s primary maritime gateways.

     

  • The Controversy: Opposition groups, like the ADC, have labeled this a “Mugun Deal” (a trick deal).

     

  • The Reason: The loan is guaranteed by UK Export Finance (UKEF), but there are strict “UK-first” conditions. At least £236 million of the money must be spent on British suppliers. For example, British Steel secured a £70 million contract to supply the steel for the project. Critics argue that while Nigeria takes on the debt, the loan is essentially a “stimulus package” for the British economy.

     

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  2. Kemi Badenoch: Is it Her “Emilokan” Moment?

  The term “Emilokan” (meaning “It’s my turn” in Yoruba) was famously used by Tinubu to assert his right to the presidency. Many Nigerians see Kemi Badenoch—the first Black woman to lead a major UK political party—as following a similar path of “destiny” and grit.

  Her Current Status (March 2026):

  • The Position: She is the Leader of the Official Opposition. In the British system, this is the final step before the Prime Minister’s office.

  • The Likelihood: Unlike Tinubu, who had the machinery of the APC behind him, Badenoch is leading a Conservative Party that is currently polling at historic lows.

  • The “Turn” Dilemma: While she has her own “Renewal 2030” plan (her version of a “Renewed Hope” agenda), she is facing a massive “red wall” of Labour support and a “blue wall” being eaten away by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

  The “Heritage” Barrier:

  The irony of her “Emilokan” moment is that many Nigerians are not rooting for her. Her recent comments—stating she no longer considers herself Nigerian and supporting policies that would make it harder for Nigerians to migrate to the UK—have created a rift. To many in the diaspora, it isn’t “her turn” because they feel she has turned her back on the very roots that produced the “Emilokan” spirit.

   

2. What are the chances she will become Prime Minister?

Becoming Prime Minister is an uphill battle for any Leader of the Opposition, but for Badenoch, the path is particularly narrow:

• Public Perception: A recent Ipsos poll found that only 1 in 5 Britons (22%) believe she will ever become Prime Minister, while 63% think it is unlikely.

   

• The “Reform UK” Problem: To win, she must win back voters who left the Conservatives for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party. To do this, she has moved further to the right on immigration and climate policy (such as her recent “Get Britain Drilling” campaign), but this risks alienating moderate “center-ground” voters needed to win a general election.

• Internal Stability: While she is currently “safe” in her job, a poor performance in the upcoming May 2026 local elections could trigger a leadership challenge from rivals like Robert Jenrick.

   

3. When are the next elections?

The UK is currently entering a major election cycle:

• The 2026 “Super Thursday” (May 7, 2026): This is the most immediate test. On this day, elections will be held for:

  • The Scottish Parliament and Senedd Cymru (Wales).

     

  • London Borough Councils and various mayoral seats across England.

     

  • Over 5,000 local council seats.

     

• The Next General Election: Under British law, the next general election does not have to be held until August 2029 (five years from the July 2024 election). However, the Prime Minister has the power to call one earlier if they choose.

   

Summary Table: The “Badenoch Outlook”

Kemi Badenoch on FIRE in the House of Commons | 2025 Budget Response

• The Criticism: She has been very vocal about corruption and insecurity in Nigeria, which led Nigeria’s Vice President, Kashim Shettima, to suggest she should “remove the Kemi from her name” if she isn’t proud of her origins.

• The Recent Visit: President Tinubu’s state visit (March 18–19, 2026) was the first in 37 years. While she attended the official functions, the lack of a high-profile private meeting between the two was widely interpreted by the Nigerian press as a “snub,” reinforcing the idea that she wants to keep her distance.

2. Her “Anti-Immigration” Policies

Badenoch has positioned herself as the “hardest” on immigration to win back voters from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Her Borders Plan (early 2026) includes:

• “British ICE”: Creating a dedicated removals force to deport 150,000 people a year.

• ECHR Exit: A promise to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights.

• The 10-Year Rule: Doubling the time foreign workers must live in the UK before they can settle (from 5 years to 10).

3. Will she be Prime Minister?

As of late March 2026, the math is looking pretty difficult for her:

• Public Opinion: Her net favorability is currently sitting at -25. While she’s popular with the Conservative “base,” 52% of the general public view her unfavorably.

• The Timeline: The next General Election isn’t required until 2029.

• Leadership Stakes: Betting markets currently give her a 58% chance of being replaced as leader before she ever gets a chance to face Keir Starmer in a general election.

The upcoming local elections in May 2026 (just 5 weeks away) will be the real “make or break” moment for her. If the Conservatives are “obliterated” as some polls suggest, she might not even make it to the end of the year as leader.