“The poll that matters is the one that happens on Election Day”— Heather Wilson
We are at that point when you get genuinely confused over the length of an election race. So much has been packed into the last two years that you will be forgiven for thinking the elections of 2027 have only one competitor: the current administration. The opposition itself appears to be waiting for the starter’s gun and has no idea whether it will be running a dash or a marathon.
But 2027 ought to have been the year the administration submits itself for the people’s verdict, and the opposition bares its muscles in readiness for defeating the incumbents. At least two solid years ought to have been devoted to governance, and an energetic challenge by the opposition should have kept the administration on its toes. It was not anything like that. The ruling party fired its own starter’s gun and set about designing obstacles for its competitors.
As things stand, the APC is in its own race. It has so many advantages over the competition, but it has become its own worst enemy. It swaggers with the confidence of a lone wrestler in the ring, mainly because it thinks its opponents are not in the race. It does not understand that its opponent is the Nigerian people, or, in the spirit of the analogy, the spectators. It has blocked and locked out all challenges and settled the referee and umpires. What it lacks in skills and competence, it makes up in weight by eating up the opposition and ignoring political correctness. Its presence in the federal legislature is awesome. With more than 26 state governors, along with their legislators, wearing its uniforms, APC can rewrite a new Nigerian constitution in a few weeks.
Consistent with its guiding assumption that presence equals power, APC has upped the ante in the giant state of Kano. It is rolling out the red carpet to welcome Governor Abba and the large posse of legislators, local government chairpersons, and councillors. Of all the states where it snatched leaders, Kano presents the most interesting gamble. The lone NNPP state government had provided former grand godfather Kwankwaso a comfortable seat in a vast arena. Now, Tinubu’s party threatens to take away the arena and leave him with a seat. It is still unclear how many voters will follow the arena, and how many will stay with the Madugu. Still, APC’s best skill is head-counting, and it will be overjoyed to have a significant Kano scalp in its kitty. There may be hell to pay, but the APC is rich enough to buy off all challenges. Kwankwaso is likely to boost the ranks of the ADC, a party that appears to have succeeded in exhausting Tinubu’s tricks of strangling the opposition with the judiciary, but not much beyond that.
Plateau State looks set to wear the APC colours around its government. When, not if this happens, it will be almost as significant as the Kano switch for Northern and Nigerian politics. Plateau has held its place in the front ranks of the PDP and the face of the other North since 1999. The rapture that the defection in Plateau will cause will be monumental.
It will substantially dilute the stranglehold of ethno-religious politics in the State, and challenge the APC to change strategic thinking around the Vice Presidential candidate in 2027 with two big prizes in its bag: the Party National Chairman and a Governor. The risks to the defectors are also frightening.
Voters and citizens could stay out rather than rub shoulders with leaders who will trade positions for more cherished values. APC itself will need to think out new strategies as it deals with a Muslim North that will have its shopping list. Plateau could prove a fertile hunting ground for the opposition, particularly ADC if the latter does not implode from arguments over tickets.
Implosion is a word that should be bandied with some sensitivity around APC and what looks most likely to be the lead in opposition, ADC. APC will certainly suffer some damage because it will have to under-deliver in terms of the expectations of its huge camp of defectors who will not willingly wear second class badges. It is already looking ahead at dispute resolution strategies because raptures will occur when too many ambitions chase limited opportunities. ADC and other parties will benefit from the damage to the PDP from which it is looking increasingly unlikely to recover. ADC itself will suffer from fallouts over tickets, so smaller parties could benefit from aggrieved politicians in search of platforms.
Still, there will be a finish line. The winner, if we have free and fair elections, will have to do a lot of work promising a nation with its back to the wall that they can change our current trajectory.
Ordinarily, predicting the defeat of a party with the type of liabilities which APC carries should not be too challenging. 2027, however, will not be an ordinary election. The opposition will need extraordinary thinking and brave posturing to defeat the APC. The best advise to all sides is not to take the Nigerian voter for granted.
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