When the news broke that Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri, the governor of Adamawa State, was preparing to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the political class reacted with a mixture of disbelief and resignation. Disbelief because Adamawa is the home state of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s most durable presidential contender. Resignation because, for months, the signs had been unmistakable: Nigeria’s political map was being redrawn with a speed and precision that suggested not coincidence, but choreography.
Fintiri’s defection is not an isolated event. It is the latest chapter in a sweeping, meticulously engineered political realignment that has seen the APC absorb governors from Kano, Rivers, and now Adamawa — with at least one more North East governor reportedly in advanced talks. If all ongoing negotiations succeed, the APC will control 31 of Nigeria’s 36 states, a level of dominance unseen since the dawn of the Fourth Republic. This is the story of how that happened — and the machinery behind it.
Infrastructure As Political Currency
At the heart of the APC’s expansion is a narrative built around infrastructure, security, and economic corridors. Party insiders describe a deliberate strategy: use large scale federal projects to reshape political incentives at the state level. The centerpiece is the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, a multi billion dollar project designed to create industrial clusters across the North. The APC’s national chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, frames it as a magnet for political alignment. The same logic applies to the Abuja–Kaduna–Kano–Maradi rail line, which will allow Nigeria to collect customs duties at the Maradi terminal under a bilateral agreement. For governors in the North West, the project is not just infrastructure; it is leverage. Then there is the Sokoto–Badagry superhighway, with plans for over 60 dams along its corridor. For agricultural states, the promise of water security and new farmland is a powerful incentive. In this framework, infrastructure becomes political currency; a tool for persuasion, alignment, and, ultimately, absorption.
The Targets: States With Strategic Electoral Value
The APC’s expansion has not been random. It has followed a clear pattern: secure states with high voter populations, symbolic weight, or strategic geopolitical value.
Kano: The Crown Jewel
Kano, with one of the largest voting blocs in the country, was the first major prize. The imminent defection of Governor Abba Yusuf is being celebrated within the APC as a masterstroke. “Kano is the political nerve centre of the North,” a senior APC strategist said. “Once Kano moves, the entire region recalibrates.”
Rivers: The Oil Rich Anchor
Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara is expected to join the APC after Ramadan. Rivers is not just an oil producing state; it is a political heavyweight in the South South. Its defection would give the APC near total control of the region.
Adamawa: The Psychological Blow
Adamawa is less about numbers and more about symbolism. It is Atiku Abubakar’s home base. Losing it to the APC would be a psychological and strategic setback for the PDP ahead of 2027.
The Method: Quiet Negotiations, Public Spectacle
Behind the scenes, the APC’s expansion has been driven by quiet negotiations, often involving federal project assurances, political protection, alignment with national development plans, and promises of influence in 2027. But the public face is spectacle: grand receptions, billboards, flags, and presidential visits. In Yola, ahead of President Tinubu’s arrival, the city was flooded with APC banners; a visual declaration of a political shift already in motion.
Opposition Fragmentation and Internal Fatigue
The defections are not solely the result of APC strategy. They are also a symptom of opposition fatigue.
The PDP, once the dominant party, has struggled with internal cohesion since 2015. Factional battles, leadership disputes, and the absence of a unified national message have left many governors politically exposed. For some, defection is not betrayal; it is survival.
If Fintiri and the remaining targeted governors defect, the APC will control: 31 states outright; influence in several others through alliances, and the political machinery of the North West, North East, and South South. This would leave the opposition with a shrinking territorial base and limited leverage heading into 2027. Political scientists warn that such dominance, while legal, risks undermining the competitive balance essential to a healthy democracy.
What Happens Next?
Nigeria has seen waves of defections before, but never at this scale, and never with this level of strategic coordination. The APC’s consolidation is reshaping the political landscape, redrawing alliances, and recalibrating power. Whether this becomes a moment of national stability or a step toward political homogenization will depend on what happens in the months ahead; and whether the opposition can mount a credible response. For now, the defections continue, the map shifts, and the machinery behind Nigeria’s most ambitious political realignment keeps turning.
